Wednesday January 09, 2008 at 8:22
“One theory is that voters contacted by pollsters are more likely to say they support a black candidate running against a white candidate out of desire to seem progressive.”
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[UPDATED] Slate has an interesting piece on why the polling was so off in New Hampshire’s primary last night. I don’t know if I buy it though, because all the polling told us Kerry was going to win handily, but the reality was quite different.
I’m also a little concerned that this could be played into a race issue. Maybe it is, there is plenty of subconscious racism loose in our country but it hasn’t seemed like Obama’s race has been an issue. Although it’s probable that living in Cambridge, MA has kept me well innoculated against seeing or hearing about those issues.
Either way, polls and talking heads can’t be trusted.
UPDATE: Apparently the Slate piece has been updated, and “the Bradley Effect” mentioned above is apparently known to be largely anecdotal and flawed. Apparently this effect is more pronounced when the interviewer is, or is thought to be (in the case of a phone poll) African-American.
